My thoughts on the Oscar nominations

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Hey guys, just thought I’d try to compile all my thoughts on the nominations today in one place, as opposed to tweeting about it all day (which let’s be honest here I’m going to do that anyway).

First off, I want to give a big HELL YEAH to The Shape of Water‘s 13 nominations. However, it should be 14. Damn you Make-up and Hairstyling getting it wrong every year without fail.

So in case you’re unaware, these are the Best Picture nominations:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Disclaimer 1: I haven’t seen Call Me By Your Name, Phantom Thread, or The Post yet. So, I don’t have any SOLID opinions, but I will say a little bit about them. I’m honestly not THAT excited about The Post. I’m sure it’s great, it has a high pedigree. But it’s that kind of “been there, done that” historical Oscar bait drama with prestige talent on it that we see multiple times, over and over, every year. But I’ll still see it. Phantom Thread is P. T. Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis, so I have no reservations about that one at all. I’ve heard nothing but praise for Call Me By Your Name.

OK so onto the ones I have seen.

They’re all very good, OK? To me, they’re all good movies. But if Lady Bird, Darkest Hour, or Dunkirk wins, I’mma be annoyed. They’re good but lord how many World War II movies do we need? And Lady Bird is a great, realistic, coming-of-age drama. In fact, it’s like probably in the Top 20 of the last 86,000 movies that are exactly like that that they keep making every year since 2007.

tsow-character-2-after

The Shape of Water is obviously my top choice, guys, let’s not fuck around here. If you’ve ever met me or read my stuff, you know that Guillermo del Toro is, to me, unparalleled. It’s time for one of his movies to win big. That being said, Get Out getting nominated is awesome. It’s an important, entertaining, and unexpected genre film and genre films get such little representation in the big prestige awards. This is a fun, funny, scary, thought-provoking movie about racism, and if it winning means a bunch of racists getting Mad Online, I support that 100%. Also it genuinely deserves it. Excellent movie.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is another great movie. It’s an example of a movie without much of a moral compass. There are no REALLY good or bad characters. I think it’s more suited for Acting and Writing wins than Picture, though.

As far as acting is concerned, I’m a little surprised to see Denzel Washington nominated, but that’s mostly because I heard Roman J. Israel, Esq. was not very good. However, I didn’t see it, so I don’t know. I think there are some reasonably obvious reasons we aren’t seeing James Franco on this list, and even without those, I’m not entirely sure he would have been a lock, considering Tom Hanks also didn’t get nominated for The Post, and I personally would make an argument for Ansel Elgort for Baby Driver. So I think maybe recent events had something to do with it, but they certainly weren’t the only reason.

Jon Hamm;Ansel Elgort

So, the remaining nominees are Gary Oldman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, and Timothee Chalamet. I mean it’s probably going to be Gary Oldman. As cool as it would be to see one of the younger guys get it, they’re up against three legacies, with this contest also carrying the weight of potentially (but let’s be honest probably not) Daniel Day-Lewis’ final nomination ever. But I’d be happy to see Oldman finally take home the Oscar he should have won for:
Sid and Nancy
JFK
Dracula
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

For Best Actress, I have only seen Shape of Water, Three Billboards, and Lady Bird. As much as I’d like to see Sally Hawkins win, or maybe Margot Robbie (I haven’t seen it, but I’m very excited to see it), it’s Frances McDormand’s. There’s an early prediction for you.

I’m pretty surprised to see Woody Harrelson nominated for Three Billboards for Supporting. Figured Sam Rockwell would be there, but apparently Armie Hammer is a huge snub? I still haven’t seen Call Me By Your Name. Anyway I’m pulling for Richard Jenkins or Willem Defoe (partly because he deserves it, partly because The Florida Project should have gotten nominations for Picture, Actress, and Cinematography as well). Very funny to see Christopher Plummer nominated for 8 days of work like. Two months ago as a giant fuck you to Kevin Spacey. Solid spite move.

So I’ve only seen Lady Bird and Shape of Water for supporting actress, and as much as I want Shape of Water to win everything, Laurie Metcalf absolutely deserves to win for Lady Bird. She was amazing.

COOKIES ARE FOR CLOSERS BITCHES THE BOSS BABY IS NOMINATED FOR AN OSCAR.

Really though, I have only seen Coco and Boss Baby, and as OK as Boss Baby actually was, LEGO Batman and Captain Underpants deserved nominations more.

As much as I was not WILD about Blade Runner 2049, that had nothing to do with the technical aspects of the film (my problems were entirely with the characterization of Rick Deckard). I’d really love to see Shape of Water win. The way the camera almost never stops moving is mesmerizing, and hypnotizes you through the whole movie. Amazing, beautiful work from Dan Laustsen, who also helped make Crimson Peak and John Wick 2 look as perfect as movies can.

Once again, for costume design I’m pulling for Shape of Water, but I really don’t know much about this one. Beauty and the Beast could do it because it’s fancy and elaborate. I don’t know I don’t really care about this award because they’re always kind of boring. Like, give me nominees for like insane costumes like Guardians of the Galaxy, Last Jedi, The Bad Batch, you know, movies that give us truly unique costumes. That said, Shape of Water should win hands-down if the fish suit counts as a costume (because apparently it doesn’t count as make-up???).

get-out-trailer

Now, the Best Director race is kind of crazy. First-timers Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig (besides the mediocre mumblecore movie she co-directed with Joe Swanberg) are up against forever-snubbed del Toro, Nolan, and PT Anderson. Crazy, fun race this time around.

Holy Shit Logan is Oscar-nominated. And for Screenplay! Holy Shit! Super exicted about that. I can’t stand Aaron Sorkin dialogue, so I haven’t seen Molly’s Game. I’ll try to watch it, but no promises I’ll have the motivation to squeeze it in.

Original Screenplay is exciting because The Big Sick! What a great movie. Oh man. Anyway let’s go Shape of Water! Or Get Out or 3 Billboards.

Editing. I genuinely think Baby Driver is the most deserving here. Shape of Water or Dunkirk would definitely not upset me if they won though.

Production Design and Score should 100% be Shape of Water.

Visual Effects should probably be Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 or War for the Planet of the Apes, but Dunkirk and Shape of Water should definitely have been nominated.

Anyway give me a couple weeks and I’ll get my official predictions out. See you on Oscar night on Twitter where I will be live-tweeting and getting drunker and angrier through the ceremony.

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